AGP Executive Report

EV tipping point: BYD says Australia has crossed its “absolute” shift away from petrol and diesel, with fully electric cars outselling petrol last month (27,078 EVs vs 25,824 petrol), and EVs plus plug-in hybrids taking 36% of the market. Oil market shock: US strikes on Iranian oil tankers are already feeding through to higher energy prices and riskier conditions for the ASX, with investors also watching rate-hike pressure. Grid-scale storage: Energy Vault secured full land ownership for a 1GWh Stoney Creek BESS in Australia, adding to the momentum in large-scale batteries. Hydrogen hunt: “Fairy circles” are being linked to naturally occurring hydrogen beneath the ground, with Australia among the places where the pattern has been measured. Gas and policy: Jemena is planning a new pipeline for the Beetaloo Basin shale gas province, while debate continues over how to manage gas, coal and oil in the transition. Critical minerals: Lithium supply remains tight as China mine suspensions tighten the 2026 outlook, keeping downstream battery plans under pressure. Community energy: ARENA marked its 100th community battery installation and backed three more projects nationwide. Climate impacts abroad with local relevance: Nepal’s Bhotekoshi floods affected 32,933 people and damaged hydropower and solar assets, underscoring how extreme weather can hit energy systems fast.

Critical Minerals Bottleneck: A new look at the critical minerals supply chain says the real constraint is downstream processing and refining capacity, with a small set of countries controlling most conversion and separation—raising exposure to export controls, licensing delays and price swings. Gas & LNG Deal: Timor-Leste’s Timor GAP is buying Osaka Gas’ 10% stake in the Greater Sunrise joint venture, lifting its ownership to 66.56% as it pushes toward selecting a Timor LNG development concept. Energy Security & Shipping: US forces say they struck three Iranian oil tankers tied to a “shadow network” after ballistic missile attacks on US navy ships, underscoring how Middle East tensions can quickly spill into oil logistics. Grid & Storage Tech: Australia’s battery buildout continues, with new storage projects and grid connections highlighted alongside broader debate on how to keep power systems stable as demand grows. Policy & Markets Watch: Coverage also flags shifting domestic gas demand and broader market jitters tied to oil and bond moves—factors that keep pressure on energy investment decisions.

Data Centres & Power Demand: A fresh wave of debate is hitting Australia’s energy system as data centres and AI drive electricity and water use, with readers warning about higher bills and hotter conditions. Household Energy Costs: A new push highlights that hot water is a major emissions and energy driver in Australian homes, with shower upgrades and electrification flagged as practical ways to cut costs. Pacific Security & Climate: Pacific leaders at the Palau summit backed stronger transparency after China’s missile test, while also reaffirming climate change as the biggest threat to island safety and livelihoods. Markets & Rates: ASX ended a volatile week down about 1%, with investors juggling Middle East oil risk and rising bond yields that keep RBA rate-hike expectations in focus. Solar & Renewables in Agriculture: WA’s Sustainability in Agriculture winner points to wind farm development as a blueprint for farmers wanting renewables investment without losing regional social and economic benefits. Solar Tech Leadership: UNSW’s Martin Green is profiled for decades of PV innovation and for helping build China’s solar industry capacity.

Northern Territory shale to LNG playbook: Beetaloo developers say they’ll scale shale gas output without Queensland’s 2010s LNG “overexpenditure”, aiming for multiple buyers including Darwin LNG and east-coast power/data-centre demand. Gas supply & market risk: PXP and partners lift the Halcon prospect in the Sulu Sea, with best-estimate recoverable gas rising to 8 TCF, after reprocessing seismic data. Batteries in the spotlight: Energy storage continues to move from pilots to buildout, including ACEN funding new BESS and solar-linked transmission/substation work in the Philippines. Grid-scale storage momentum: Energy Vault secures land for a 1GWh Stoney Creek BESS project in Australia, reinforcing the push for firming renewables. Policy & shipping decarbonisation: The IMO Net-Zero Framework emerges largely intact after talks, keeping carbon pricing at the centre of marine fuel emissions rules. Energy finance & critical minerals: Rare-earth and critical-minerals deals keep rolling, including Energy Fuels completing an Australian Strategic Materials acquisition to expand alloy capacity. Geopolitics hitting energy costs: Oil and bond-market volatility remains tied to Middle East tensions, with crude prices still elevated.

Pacific Energy Investment: Pacific Islands Forum leaders in Palau launched a $2b renewable investment prospectus aiming to cut fossil-fuel dependence, with leaders also backing urgent climate action to keep 1.5°C within reach and registering concern over China’s July missile test. Emergency Fuel Policy: The Albanese government has quietly disbanded its emergency fuel taskforce, despite ongoing Middle East-driven oil market disruption. Grid-Scale Storage Milestone: Energy Vault says it has secured full land ownership for its 1GWh Stoney Creek BESS in NSW, supported by an AEMO Services LTESA. Gas Price Pressure: Reports highlight that staying on gas can mean higher bills, as prices and market dynamics feed through to households. Climate Risk Watch: The WMO warns El Niño is strengthening into 2027, raising odds of extreme weather. Market Pulse: ASX sentiment improved as bond yields eased and Wall Street tech led gains, lifting banks and some energy-linked names while lithium lagged. Disaster-linked Hydropower Rescue: In Nepal, two hydropower workers were rescued from the Trishuli 3A tunnel on day 10 after catastrophic flooding.

Climate Risk Watch: The UN’s weather agency says El Niño is set to intensify into a “very strong” event, with impacts on rainfall and temperature likely to run through to February and spill into 2027—raising the odds of floods, drought and extreme heat. AI & Power Demand: A UN-backed report warns tech firms’ climate pledges are lagging as AI and cloud growth drives rising emissions and energy use, even as some companies expand renewables. EV Shift in Australia: New VFACTS data shows battery-electric vehicles outsold petrol and diesel in August for the first time, with electrified cars now making up 53.9% of new sales. Battery Storage Deal: Amazon has signed its first standalone battery storage tolling agreement in APAC, backing Anza Power’s 50MW/200MWh Bairnsdale BESS in Victoria. Energy Security & Markets: Oil prices hover near $95 as US-Iran strikes threaten Gulf supply, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly declines.

Beetaloo gas push: Jemena says it wants a ~400km pipeline to link the Beetaloo Basin to the Northern Gas Pipeline, aiming to move more shale gas east as Tamboran starts supplying Darwin. Grid + storage momentum: Hydrostor secured grid connection for a 200MW/1,600MWh compressed air project, while ARENA marked its 100th community battery and backed three more. Data-centre energy politics: Defence Minister Richard Marles frames AI uptake as a sovereignty issue and flags new national data-centre standards on water and energy; meanwhile, public pushback over AI “factories” is growing. Climate risk backdrop: The UN warns El Niño is set to intensify into a “very strong” event lasting to February, with extreme heat, drought and flood risks rising. Energy transition workforce: A PSO report warns shortages in critical energy transition roles could be worsened by fast-growing AI data-centre demand. Gas market signals: Synergy was fined $1.2m over a Kwinana battery software error that inflated WA wholesale prices. Resources updates: Core Energy Minerals eyes a 51% uranium JV stake in Namibia; Boss Energy swings back to profit as Honeymoon ramps; Pilbara Minerals posts record lithium output.

LNG Project Update: Woodside says the final, heaviest module has arrived for Pluto LNG’s Train 1 upgrade in Karratha, pushing the Scarborough-linked works toward first LNG cargo in Q4 2026. Gas Supply & Markets: IEEFA flags Australia’s domestic gas demand continuing to fall, adding pressure to the economics of new supply. Clean Energy Buildout: ARENA marks its 100th community battery installation and backs three more projects, underscoring the momentum in storage across the grid. Energy Security & Regional Power: Australia’s Pacific push keeps landing in the headlines, with leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum in Palau calling out climate impacts and arguing for stronger regional cooperation on energy security. Climate Risk: A UN report warns the world is on track to overshoot the 1.5°C goal, with consequences already showing up in extreme heat, fires and floods. Finance Backdrop: Global bond yields remain a major headwind for energy investment, with oil-price-driven inflation fears keeping borrowing costs elevated. Critical Minerals Angle: A push for rare earths beyond China is gaining traction as demand for magnet materials rises with EVs, wind and defence.

Beetaloo gas momentum: Tamboran Resources has started commissioning the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility at Shenandoah South, using gas from the SS2 pad, moving the Beetaloo Basin project closer to first gas sales under a long-term take-or-pay deal with the Northern Territory. Green iron scale-up: Element Zero secured up to $26m from ARENA to scale its Perth green iron electroreduction module from 10kg/day to 1 tonne/day, with a pathway to 10 tonnes/day—aimed at building a repeatable modular model for Pilbara production. Grid reality check: AEMO says rooftop solar met 99.9% of South Australia’s demand at 1.30pm on 31 August, with batteries charging heavily—another sign the NEM is getting more dynamic and needs fast balancing. Climate pressure on Australia: A new UN Environment Programme report says the world has lost the chance of holding 1.5°C, with Pacific leaders using the findings to push for faster fossil fuel phase-down. Markets and energy costs: Renewed US-Iran tensions lifted oil and pushed bond yields higher, dragging global stocks and keeping pressure on Australia’s energy-linked sentiment. Battery and defence tech tie-up: Li-S Energy and EPE signed an agreement to evaluate and demonstrate Li-S battery cells for defence and security customers.

Australia–Asia energy markets: Australian shares are set to open lower as oil spikes on renewed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions and global bond yields jump, feeding rate-hike worries. Geopolitics and supply risk: The US launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets, while Iran says it will reciprocate if the US returns to a deal—keeping shipping and LNG-linked risk front and centre. Clean power investment: Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners has acquired the 408MW Gawara Baya onshore wind plus 104MW battery project in North Queensland, with construction to start soon and full operation targeted for 2030. Gas supply milestone: Beetaloo Basin’s first gas has flowed to Darwin, with developers aiming to use early output data to guide future shale-gas development and grid fuel. Policy and demand pressure: New data points to softer Australian growth tied partly to reduced data centre investment, while inflation remains sticky—raising the stakes for energy reliability and costs. Battery supply chain: NOVONIX says it will not buy adjacent land at its US Riverside battery materials site, despite previously secured tax credits for the project. Climate resilience: A global coral health report warns reefs are dying because they can’t recover between bleaching events fast enough, underscoring worsening extremes that also threaten coastal energy and infrastructure.

Beetaloo gas starts flowing: Gas has begun entering the Northern Territory grid from the Beetaloo sub-basin, with Tamboran marking the first flow after an eight-year fracking moratorium was lifted—NT says fixed-rate contracts will replace costly emergency gas and support reliability. Market mood hit by oil and rates: Australian shares slipped as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed crude higher and bond yields stayed elevated, weighing on sentiment even as the energy sub-index held up. AGL steadies earnings with batteries: AGL’s mild winter helped drain wholesale volatility, but the company leaned on its expanding battery fleet to lift earnings and cash flow, supporting a higher distribution. Gas project progress at Santos and Woodside: Santos framed its half-year as the shift from heavy spending to cash generation as Barossa moves toward steady-state and Pikka ramps; Woodside said Scarborough is in final construction with commissioning and first cargo steps underway. Energy software deal: Energy Exemplar acquired SIMONE Research Group and LIWACOM to deepen gas network simulation and optimisation capabilities. Solar push gets funding: ARENA backed University of Sydney work on more durable silicon–perovskite tandem solar cells, aiming for commercial-scale manufacturing in Australia.

Data-centre power fight: Australia’s national cabinet is still wrestling over “BYO power” rules for AI data centres, with federal plans for binding standards (100% renewables plus firming) colliding with state desires to use coal and gas—leaving a carve-out possibility and little clarity for operators. Energy security & storage momentum: Battery installations hit a record as Australia’s clean energy shift accelerates, while major projects keep stacking up, including Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners’ acquisition of a 104MW grid-forming BESS project in Australia. Rare earths supply chain: Energy Fuels says it has completed its acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials to build a mine-to-magnet rare earth chain, adding Dubbo resources and Korean alloy capacity. Solar research push: ARENA commits $105.6m to next-wave solar innovation, backing work aimed at lowering costs and boosting performance. Global oil shock: Oil prices jumped after renewed US-Iran hostilities, lifting broader market pressure and reinforcing how geopolitics can quickly feed into energy costs. Hydropower risk in the region: Nepal’s flash floods have left hundreds of hydropower workers missing, highlighting the operational and safety stakes for energy infrastructure in extreme weather.

Gas security: AEMO warns Australia’s east coast faces gas supply risks from 2030 as southern production declines, pointing to new investment in northern gas access, storage and transport, with Tamboran’s Beetaloo Basin development nearing first gas sales. Solar push: ARENA backs Australia’s next solar cost break, committing up to $105.6m across 20 university-led projects to drive ultra-low-cost PV and cut the cost of building and running solar farms. Solar tech upgrade: ClearVue says it’s cleared a manufacturing hurdle for energy-generating solar glass, enabling high-performance Low-E coatings on its PV glass using standard glazing systems. Batteries and revenue models: Wärtsilä argues battery developers should focus on flexible control tech as fast-response FCAS revenue has weakened, with arbitrage now the main earnings driver. Nuclear debate: Pauline Hanson renews calls for nuclear reactors on Australia’s east coast while also pushing to keep coal plants running, reigniting the politics around reliability and transition pathways. Energy policy meets data centres: The week’s broader fight over whether data centres should use only renewables continues to shape electricity planning and state-by-state rules.

Pacific Security & Energy Diplomacy: Civil society groups are urging Pacific leaders in Palau to speak harder on missile testing and other regional risks, while also pushing partners to back renewable-energy and climate-resilience priorities. Energy Reliability Pressure: Business leaders are demanding uninterrupted power, priority gas and electricity for industrial zones, and advance load-shedding schedules after energy instability is blamed for investment and production slowdowns. Australia–Rare Earth Supply Chain: Energy Fuels has completed its acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, adding a South Korea rare-earth metallisation plant and the Dubbo project to build a mine-to-magnet chain. Data Centres vs Power Bills: Reporting continues to circle the policy fight over whether data centres should be forced toward renewables, with states and the federal government taking different approaches. Uranium Watch: US uranium output jumped in 2025, but the country still relies heavily on foreign supply—highlighting the wider fuel-security challenge for nuclear-heavy plans.

Data-centre power fight: Australia’s data centre renewables rules are back in the spotlight after the government eased demand, with debate shifting to whether coal-and-gas power can still be used and what that means for household bills. Energy prices shock: A CREA study says fossil fuel importers paid a gross extra $330b after US–Iran strikes, with India alone hit by about $22b in higher oil, products and LNG costs—another reminder of how Strait of Hormuz disruptions flow through to energy security. Coal-and-gas politics: One Nation ramps up pressure in Victoria, promising to reinvest in coal and gas and scrap the renewable energy zone, targeting transmission plans like VNI West. Critical minerals geopolitics: A “mineral corridor” analysis argues value is won not just by mining but by processing and supply-chain control—while Indonesia eases export-proceeds rules for qualifying miners to support downstream investment. Regional energy diplomacy: Iraq and Australia discuss expanding trade and investment, with Australian interest flagged in oil and energy. Humanitarian energy-adjacent disaster: Nepal’s glacier-flood catastrophe is still unfolding, with WFP receiving Australia’s $2m for emergency food and logistics.

Data Centres & Power Rules: Australia’s data-centre energy stance is back in the spotlight as the government pushes ahead with rules and rejects “carve-outs” for sites using fossil-fuel power, while NextDC flags rising water and energy use alongside a profit beat. Solar Policy Push: Pressure is mounting for “balcony solar” to be legal in Australia, after the UK made plug-in solar official and retailers began selling systems—an example Solar Citizens is using to argue Australia could move fast too. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Australia-linked breaches are a warning sign for the energy sector and beyond, with Origin and other firms named among targets; experts say stolen details get stitched together faster thanks to AI. Geopolitics & Energy Security: Iran-linked cyber threats are flagged as a growing risk to allied infrastructure, while Russia’s aviation fuel squeeze is forcing imports of Jet A-1 after strikes hit refining capacity. Critical Minerals & Rare Earths: India’s EV and wind ambitions keep colliding with heavy rare earth supply chains dominated by China, with Myanmar and Laos highlighted as nearby upstream sources. Nuclear Supply: US uranium concentrate production surged in 2025, but US reactors still rely heavily on overseas purchases.